signed
by GEORGE GALLUP
GEORGE GALLUP (1901-1984). Gallup established the American Institute of Public Opinion, today known as Gallup, Inc., in 1935. This archive consists of items belonging to and related to George Gallup. Gallup is often credited as the pioneer of public polling. His upstart organization, the American Institute of Public Opinion, shocked the political world in 1936 by correctly predicting that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt would be successfully re-elected. The gold standard poll at the time, done by the widely respected Literary Digest magazine, had predicted that his challenger, Alf Landon, would win in a landslide. Their prediction was so far off that the magazine folded by the next election. Gallup succeeded in 1936 by introducing statistical random sampling, which allowed him to get responses from a wider variety of respondents with a significantly smaller sample size than was traditionally utilized by pollsters. Such a method is still integral to polling, especially political polling, today. Gallups polls were not foolproof, however; he predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat President Harry Truman in the 1948 election by between 5% and 15%. Gallup also pioneered objective polling, as he refused to commission polls requested and/or funded by a political party.This archive totals well over two hundred items, including typed and handwritten letters written by or addressed to Gallup, reports and publications issued by his polling organization, newspaper articles highlighting some of his findings, biographical and family information, and even his wifes 1955 World Health Organization vaccination card. The items span from the 1940s through the 1970s, but most items are from the 1950s. Notable items, especially for political junkies, include: a)Document. 20 pgs. 8 x 10 1948. N.p. This is a document advocating for the 1948 Republican presidential nomination to go to Harold Strassen, most likely produced by the Strassen campaign. Central to the documents argument that he is the best candidate is polling done by Gallup in 1944 and 1948. The document shows that Gallup correctly predicted that Thomas Dewey, the partys 1944 nominee, would lose in 1944 and accurately predicted the margin. Then, it shows that Gallup projects Dewey to lose again in 1948 if he were the nominee, as would Robert Taft, another leading opponent. As for Strassen, it uses Gallup data to show that, while Strassen is still losing to President Harry Truman, his margin is less than the other two candidates and he has the most room to grow since he is the least well-known of the three. It also shows Strassens popularity relate to Truman and his Republican opponents with independents and in Democratic cities. This document is an early example of campaigns using predictive general election polling in party primaries to justify nomination, a tactic still seen in 2024. b)Document. 4 pgs. 8 x 10. N.d. Princeton. This is a document by the Gallup Poll attempting to explain, in the wake of Thomas Deweys surprising loss in the preceding 1948 presidential election, why polling on him did not reflect reality. Governor Thomas E. Dewey had every right to blame the pollsters and political pundits this writer among them for the overconfidence that was a factor in his defeat in the 1948 presidential raceThose of us who have recorded the ups and downs of presidential hopefuls and candidates since 1935 remember Governor Dewey as a man who had a passion for facts. That is why he paid particular attention to poll findings. In fact, he had a better understanding of poll procedures than any of the leading figures of the present era. Despite this knowledge, Gallup argues that Dewey was a victim of changing political dynamics, often accurately reflected in later polling: Governor Deweys career in national politics offers dramatic proof of how events not speeches or campaigning can be decisive in political contests. 1940 surveys accurately reflected how World War II, and the desire to have an older, more experienced president, cost Dewey his frontrunner status. In 1944, Dewey was nearly even with President Roosevelt until October, when German success convinced Americans not to change presidents, since the war would continue into the next year. Finally, in 1948 Dewey was actually a victim of bad polling, because confidence in Deweys victory meant that polls were not taken through Election Day. Had they been, they would have illuminated shifting sentiment by farmers from Dewey to Truman over the threat of anew recession. This report by Gallup was not meant to be a confidential, internal project. Not only was it labeled FOR RELEASE: UPON RECEIPT, but Gallup separately, as presented in the archive, made sure it was disseminated throughout the United States to various media stakeholders and polling allies. When he was wrong Gallup wanted to make sure he was held accountable. c)TLS. 1 pg. 8 x 10. May 23, 1950. Washington D.C. A typed letter signed Charles to Dr. George Gallup: I appreciate your recent note referring to my current legislative questionnaire, and I am glad to send, for your information, a tabulation of the first thousand returnedI was interested to see that the answers from the Forth District do not seem to vary too substantially with the nationwide results you have obtained on the questions on which you conducted polls. I will be especially anxious to get the response to the World Government question when it is available, and on the other questions. This is a letter from Congressman Charles Howell (1904-1973), who represented New Jerseys 4th Congressional District as a Democrat between 1949-1955. The letter reflects the symbiotic nature between Gallups polls, more nationally inclined, and state and local polling, like that by Howell. Both types relied on each other to determine what types of questions should be asked and to ensure accuracy. Howells poll, included in the archive, consists of 17 questions asked to his constituents. Notably, it indicates 652 of the respondents favor limited World government, indicating support for the United Nations and other new international bodies. d)TLS. 1 pg. 8 x 10. February 19. 1952. Washington D.C. A typed letter signed George Gallup to Senator George Smathers: We are currently conducting a poll on your proposal for a 48-state primary system. I think it is one of the really constructive suggestions that have been made in recent years. It has always seemed strange to me that we Americans are inventive and progressive in every department except government. And certainly there is no situation in American political life that needs correcting more than the primary system. One of the problems of this nation is to get more people to take an active interest in elections. As you may know, fewer people vote in the United Stares than n any other major democracy of the world. I believe that your proposal might help correct this very bad situation. If people could have more to say about their candidates and of the machines had less I think that inevitably the public would take a greater part in the November elections. We hope to publish our results in a week or two. I will see that you get a copy This letter is one example of many in the archive that highlights Gallups close relationship with elected officials, the centrality of his polling data to ideological causes, and Gallups faith in how polling can promote political change. George Smathers (1913-2007) was a Democratic U.S. Senator from Florida between 1951-1969. In a post-Senate interview, Smathers called his failure to institute a nationwide primary, all states holding their primaries on the same day, one of his biggest disappointments. e)TLS. 1 pg. 8 x 10. October 3. 1952. Washington D.C. A typed letter signed Joan M. Benson Secretary to George Gallup to Senator Paul H. Douglas: The release I am sending you is the only release the very busy A.I.P.O staff has been able to unearth with a rather superficial search. They have done some polling of the attitudes of people over 65 on various issues; some of the results have been published, some have not. After the election, the A.I.P.O staff would be glad to place specific questions on the ballot for you. Until that time, however, I suggest that you consult the PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY for articles dealing with your concerns. They may refer you to out office again, but if you are armed with specific articles and the dates of same, you will receive better treatment. This letter highlights Gallups desire to be seen neither as a partisan actor nor as interfering in an election (in this case, the 1952 elections). This letter, from Gallups secretary is in response to Senator Paul Douglas letter, also included in the archive from September 19th. This letter, in his capacity as Chairman of the Joint Committee on Railroad Retirement sought information on the attitudes of people 65 and over toward economic problems and public policies in general, and specifically with respect to such government programs as Social Security, Public Assistance, etc. In addition, the attitude of the public generally on the role of the Government in this field would be helpful. The close proximity of this request to November, despite Douglas well-known hostility towards his partys presidential nominee, his home-state governor Adlei Stevenson, clearly made Gallup uncomfortable and required this curt response. Paul Douglas (1892-1976) was Democratic U.S. Senator from Illinois between 1949-1967. f)TLS. 1 pg. 8 x 10. March 8, 1954. Washington D.C. A typed letter signed William F. Knowland to Mr. George Gallup: I want to acknowledge and thank you for your letter of March 1 enclosing the results of the Poll which you conducted on the voting qualifications of 18-year-olds. This material will be of great interest when the bill to lower the voting age is presented for debate on the Senate floor. Senator William Knowland (1908-1974) served as a Republican U.S. Senator from California between 1945-1959 and as Senate Republican leader from 1953-1959. The issue of lowering the voting age from 21 to 18 began in earnest during World War II but received a fresh jolt of support early in 1954 when President Dwight Eisenhower endorsed the effort in his State of the Union address. However, the effort would remain unsuccessful until the 26th Amendment was ratified in 1971. Knowlands views on the issue are unclear, he was long defeated by 1971, but his status as the leader of the conservative wing of the Republican Party and intra-party hostility towards Eisenhower made it more likely than not that he opposed the measure; this clarifies Gallups nonpartisan credentials. g)TLS. 1 pg. 8 x 10. April 8, 1954. New York, New York. A typed letter signed George Gallup to Mr. William Benton: I am enclosing a copy of out last report on McCarthy, in case you missed itI have followed a policy of not seeing the President, or anyone closely connected with him, on political matters. If I did it would probably embarrass them and lead to criticism of our effortsThe new figures will delight you. This letter comes from the closing months of Senator Joseph McCarthys Red Scare. By December 1954, McCarthy was censured by his colleagues. Yet before that final vote, some of his colleagues and other political figures had been trying to destroy his political influence, including President Dwight Eisenhower and William Benton. Senator William Benton (1900-1973) was a Democratic U.S. Senator from Connecticut between 1950-1953 and the publisher of the Encyclopedia Britannica between 19431973. He was a frequent correspondent with Gallup, including on polling surrounding Senator McCarthy. Benton was an early and long-time critic, who lost his seat in 1952 in large part due to McCarthy campaigning against him. Bentons efforts in retirement to coordinate anti-McCarthy efforts with the Republican White House reflect the growing bipartisan opposition to McCarthy. In a previous letter, included in the archive, Benton writes to Gallup, suggesting he present polling information on McCarthys influence directly to Eisenhower and Sherman Adams, his Chief of Staff. Gallup, however, reiterates his long-standing opposition to being perceived as a partisan figure and directly integrating himself, via his polling, into politics. All items in this archive are in good condition. Some have folds and minor tears, and many are on brittle, carbon-copy paper and need to be treated with caution. This archive is a unique and important testament to a political pioneer and is a must for any student of American politics and polling. (Inventory #: 6294)
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